The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has announced it will begin issuing storm watches and warnings 48 hours ahead of time, about 12 hours sooner than they have been doing.  James Franklin, NHC chief hurricane specialist, said improvements in storm track forecasts warrant the change.  NHC forecasts have reduced error rates to about one-third their level in 1970 and half the level of 15 years ago.

When a storm is approaching land, forecasters will now send watches advising that tropical storm conditions could be expected there in 48 hours, instead of 36 hours. Warnings of tropical storm or hurricane conditions will be issued 36 hours ahead, not 24 hours.

Forecasters still struggle with the more complex issue of predicting a storm's intensity, however, and admit that years more work is needed to increase the accuracy of intensity predictions.  Clayton Scott, chief hurricane planner for Savannah-Chatham County on the Georgia Coast, said watches and warnings are of great interest to the public, but not so important for emergency decision-makers. Both NHC forecasters and local emergency preparedness officials say the change likely will not affect how coastal area evacuations are ordered.

The changes apply to both the Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 to Nov. 30 and the eastern Pacific season from May 15 to November 30.

Hurricane Warnings to be Sent Earlier (Associated Press 1/5/10)

January 13, 2010