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Will This Be Another Wimpy Hurricane Season?

Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project forecast for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season indicates that nine tropical storms will form, but only three will become hurricanes...
April 17, 2014

Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project forecast for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season indicates that nine tropical storms will form, but only three will become hurricanes. Meteorologists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray say the forecast is for a below-average hurricane season, and El Niño is just one factor influencing the quieter forecast.

Of the three predicted hurricanes, only one is expected to become a major Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane. For the U.S. coastline, there is a 35 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall, with the East Coast's chance at 20 percent, according to the forecast. Klotzbach said a predicted El Niño is one factor that led to their quiet forecast. El Niño, a climate pattern defined by warmer-than-normal water in the tropical Pacific Ocean, tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes.

A word of caution: weather forecasting is a science, but an inexact one. Heading into last year’s hurricane season, forecasters were predicting an active one. But when it was all over, the 2013 hurricane season was the least active in more than 30 years. The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

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