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Forecasters Reaffirm Prediction of Below-average Hurricane Season

Forecasters are standing by their prediction of below-average storm activity as the height of the hurricane season approaches...
August 7, 2014

Forecasters are standing by their prediction of below-average storm activity as the height of the hurricane season approaches. Colorado State University forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach are predicting 10 named storms, with four of them becoming hurricanes, and one growing to a “major” storm, of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, with top sustained winds of at least 111 mph. The team again cited “exceptionally unfavorable hurricane formation conditions in the tropical Atlantic combined with the likely development of a weak to moderate El Niño event.” So far this year, the tropics have been quiet. Only one system, Arthur, formed, in early July; it later became a hurricane.

The team’s prediction always comes with a disclaimer that it should not be taken as a planning tool, except to encourage people to prepare as if they will be hit by a storm. And forecasters point out that 1992’s Hurricane Andrew struck during a year that produced only four hurricanes.

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