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RMS: Ebola Tipping Point Could Come in January 2015

Catastrophe risk modeling firm Risk Management Solutions in a new report says the current outbreak of Ebola in West Africa will continue to worsen while the deployment of resources is ramped up to meet the caseload...
November 4, 2014

Catastrophe risk modeling firm Risk Management Solutions (RMS) in a new report says the current outbreak of Ebola in West Africa will continue to worsen while the deployment of resources is ramped up to meet the caseload.

According to RMS modeling, until a tipping point is reached where the number of new daily cases declines rather than increases, the severity of the outbreak will continue to multiply, with the total number of new cases approximately doubling each month. RMS modeling suggests that, based on current response efforts, the tipping point will be reached in January 2015, with the outbreak subsiding by June 2015.

RMS said it does not expect this outbreak of Ebola to become a significant mortality threat outside of West Africa.

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